WEEKLY FORECAST
12.21.2021 – 12.27.2021
A CENTRAL FLORIDA FISHING FORECAST EVERY TUESDAY
It’s that time of year for Shad fishing in the St Johns! Don’t miss Paul MacInnis’ featured story on the subject!
With it being the end of December and peak holiday season, everyone should take a moment to reflect on what’s important this time of year… Things like family, friends, health, and perhaps most obviously, the annual American Shad spawn on the St Johns (don’t miss Paul MacInnis’ featured story on the subject in this week’s forecast!)…
We hope everyone has a wonderful holiday season — and if you’re trying not to get your hopes up on Santa parking a new boat under your Christmas Tree this year, take matters into your own hands and check out the incredible Spacefish-exclusive offer from Falcon Boats!
IN THIS WEEK’S FORECAST…
SPACE B.O.I. FORECAST
OFFSHORE
INSHORE
BEACH
WEATHER OVERVIEW: This week the weather is going to be a bit angry at the beginning of the week. It appears our next cold (or should I say cool) front is rolling in Tuesday. The wind is going to be high along with the rain chances. We should start to see it settle down Thursday. With the wind predominantly out of the W this week, expect the surf and near-shore fishing to be good. Friday, Saturday & Sunday all look like they’re going to be nice days with higher than normal temperatures for this time of year and sunny skies which should make for a great day on the water whether you are fishing or just relaxing.
Click here to check out the marine forecast from the National Weather Service.
FEATURED STORY
ST JOHNS SHAD FISHING
GIVEAWAY CONTESTS
STRIKE-ZONE $100 GIVEAWAY
The month, we’re giving away a $100 Gift Card to Strike-Zone Fishing. The winner will be randomly drawn from all entries and announced on the first forecast of 2021, on Tuesday, January 4th.
Fishing Reports
In every week’s Spacefish fishing forecast, we turn to both fishing pros and average joe’s for input on what’s happening in and around Brevard County’s many fisheries. Here’s what people are saying about the bite in the Space Coast this week. And don’t forget — anyone — including YOU, can contribute a report to the list below!
Southern Brevard Fishing Report
This week on the water was a little slow but had some solid moments. I managed to land a few good snook and saw plenty of redfish cruising around.
I also hooked into a couple of massive black drum on the flats. One eventually broke the line and the other straightened out the jig, but it was an incredible fight and a reminder of how big these fish can get.
Everything was caught on artificials this week, mostly paddle tails, a few artificial shrimp, and some topwater here and there.
With a cooler week ahead, water temperatures will continue to fall and fishing may stay slow if you’re not looking in the right areas. Even on slow weeks, though, it’s still fun to be out there and see what’s moving.
Melbourne Rain Barrel Workshop
There are still spots available for our next Rain Barrel Workshop THIS SATURDAY, January 17, 11 a.m. – 12 p.m.
Can't make it this Saturday? Our next workshop will be held on February 8.
For details, please see our website: https://t.co/NP4EW22zsr https://t.co/yGDAYnFLeB
— City of Melbourne FL (@MelbourneFL) January 12, 2026
If everybody used a rain barrel, it could go a LONG way in reducing the harm of run-off and nutrients to the lagoon. Get a barrel, people!
Cold front, Cold Bite
What a beautiful week we had for fishing. Even though the bite wasn’t the strongest, it was still a great time to get out and enjoy the sunshine. This week is shaping up to be a bit windier, but beach wave reports look relatively calm. There should be a light chop on the water, which is great for surf fishing. When it’s too calm, the fish don’t always cooperate, water movement is key. Northeast winds are expected, and that should help dig out some fresh troughs to fish.
Now for the big question: where are the pompano? We’ve had a couple of solid cold spells, yet the pompano bite has been hit or miss in the Cape Canaveral and Cocoa Beach area. There have been a few days over the past couple of weeks when they showed up, but lately the action has mainly been puppy drum, nice-sized whiting, bluefish, and jacks.
All of these species have been eating live sand fleas, small pieces of shrimp, and clam, rigged on pompano rigs with white, pink, or orange floats. Some days have required a sputnik weight, and with this week’s wind direction, extra weight will definitely be needed to hold bottom.
That’s all for this week. As always, tight lines!
Sprayin’ & Prayin’ – Is Florida Bass fishing in a state of decline?
Contractors spraying to control aquatic vegatation in accordance with public management programs. Photo Credit: Citrus County Chronicle; Matthew Beck/Chronicle file photo
Happy Monday Spacefish!
This year, I’ve kicked off a bit of a personal project. I want to focus my bass fishing efforts on starting at the very top of the Kissimmee/Alligator Chain and working my way south in a slow, methodical crawl — eventually following the system all the way down to Lake Okeechobee.
I started that journey over Christmas break with a trip to Lake Mary Jane and Lake Hart. I’ll write a full report on that trip soon. It wasn’t terrible. It wasn’t lights-out either. But that trip — paired with a long-form YouTube interview I stumbled across a few days later — sent me down a bit of a rabbit hole.
And once you start looking closely at Florida’s bass fisheries, it’s hard to unsee some things.
When “Managed” Water Feels Lifeless
If you’ve spent enough time fishing Florida lakes and rivers, chances are you’ve pulled up to a favorite stretch only to find it freshly sprayed — brown, brittle, and looking more like the aftermath of a salad bar than prime bass habitat.
Aquatic plant management is one of the most debated topics in Florida fishing, and for good reason. On paper, spraying invasive vegetation like hydrilla or water hyacinth is meant to keep waterways navigable and usable. But the ripple effects don’t stop at the surface.
When large mats of vegetation are killed all at once, that plant matter doesn’t disappear — it decays in place. As it breaks down, bacteria consume dissolved oxygen in the water column. In hot weather or low-light conditions, oxygen levels can drop fast, sometimes fast enough to stress fish or trigger localized fish kills. At the same time, the loss of healthy grass removes critical spawning cover, feeding areas, and ambush points bass rely on year-round.
Add decades of accumulated muck on the bottom, nutrients released during decay, and the potential for harmful algal blooms, and it’s easy to understand why anglers get frustrated.
Photo Credit: Ernst Peters/The Ledger - Fishing guide Kyle Brewer shows the depth of decaying plant material he says is made worse by chemical spraying on Lake Hatchineha.
The Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission maintains that spraying is just one piece of an integrated management plan, working alongside mechanical harvesting, biological controls, and careful timing. The goal is balance — access, safety, and ecosystem health.
But on the water, many anglers can’t help but wonder if we’re managing plants right out of the fishery.
Saying the Quiet Part Out Loud
Let’s just say it plainly: Bass fishing in Florida isn’t what it used to be in a lot of places.
That doesn’t mean the state is “fished out.” It doesn’t mean you can’t still catch good fish. But across many of Florida’s most well-known lakes and rivers, the warning signs are getting harder to ignore.
The biggest issue is habitat — or more accurately, the steady loss of it.
Shoreline development, altered freshwater flows, prop scarring, and declining water quality have all chipped away at the vegetation bass need to spawn, feed, and survive. Nutrient runoff, pesticides, and urban growth keep systems under constant stress before a single lure ever hits the water.
Fishing pressure doesn’t help. Florida still carries its reputation as the Bass Fishing Capital of the World, and popular lakes see heavy pressure year-round. During the spawn especially, repeated targeting of the same fish takes a toll. Bass are resilient — but resilience has limits when pressure, pollution, and habitat loss all stack up at once.
Water management plays a role too. When natural water levels and seasonal flows are disrupted, bass lose access to shallow spawning areas at critical times of year. And then there’s spraying — the ongoing flashpoint. Many anglers believe herbicide use accelerates long-term habitat decline, while agencies argue it’s necessary to control invasive plants and maintain access.
Either way, the controversy highlights just how fragile these systems have become.
The results are showing up on the water: fewer quality bites, smaller average fish, and fewer true trophies coming from places that once produced them regularly. Legendary fisheries like the St. Johns River and parts of the Harris Chain have struggled in recent years, raising concerns among anglers and conservation groups alike.
Social Media Noise — and the Signal Beneath It
Spend a few minutes scrolling fishing social media and it won’t take long before the algorithm tells you what you should be mad about (thanks, Zuckerberg). Once you click on one post about spraying or water management, your feed turns into a nonstop loop of outraged anglers, blurry boat photos, and bold claims flying in every direction.
Most of it is noise.
But every now and then, something cuts through.
That’s how I came across Mighty River Recovery, a nonprofit made up of anglers and conservation-minded folks working to slow the decline of the St. Johns River. I watched a nearly hour-long interview on the @OpenWoods YouTube channel featuring Joe Balog, executive director of Mighty River Recovery, breaking down the decline of bass fishing in Florida. You can check out the video here:
For anglers who remember when the St. Johns was a true bass powerhouse, the current state of things is hard to swallow. Poor water quality and the disappearance of submerged grasses have taken a real toll.
That video hit especially close to home after a recent trip to fish for a Bass write-up.
When the Water Goes Quiet
The area had recently been treated with aquatic herbicides, and the change was impossible to miss. Healthy vegetation had turned brown and brittle, already sloughing off and sinking. The water carried a strange surface sheen. No bait flickering. No bass activity.
No life.
There weren’t dead fish floating, but the place felt empty — like the switch had been flipped off.
I didn’t know who carried out the spraying, but it didn’t take long to realize this wasn’t an isolated story. Scroll long enough and you’ll see anglers across Florida documenting spray boats, airboats, and even helicopters treating public waters. Many applications are ordered by agencies like FWC, water management districts, or the Army Corps of Engineers to control aggressive invasive plants.
To be fair, Florida waters are weed factories. Warm temperatures, nutrient-rich systems, and a long growing season mean vegetation grows fast and thick. Anyone who’s fished Kissimmee or Toho in the summer knows unmanaged grass can take over in a hurry.
Still, more anglers are questioning whether routine chemical spraying is the right long-term answer.
We’re told these herbicides are safe when applied properly — yet the applicators are often wearing full protective gear and respirators. That disconnect makes anglers uneasy, especially when treatments happen multiple times a year in waters they fish, boat, and sometimes live on.
Even setting chemical toxicity aside, the bigger concern may be what happens after the plants die.
Photo Credit: Ernst Peters/The Ledger
Where the Grass Goes
Florida anglers have already seen what unchecked organic buildup can do. Lakes like Okeechobee and Apopka didn’t end up with feet of muck overnight.
Some organic matter is natural. Too much creates unstable systems — cloudy water, trapped nutrients, constant algae blooms.
When sprayed vegetation dies, it stays in the system. As it decomposes, oxygen drops. Nutrients rise. Algae blooms follow. Then those blooms die, pulling oxygen down even further.
Spray. Decay. Murky water. Fewer fish.
It’s a cycle many anglers recognize all too well.
Looking for Better Options
This is where groups like Mighty River Recovery stand out. Instead of just posting online, they’re funding independent testing of river sediments for commonly used herbicides — something no agency is currently doing. Their goal isn’t finger-pointing; it’s transparency and accountability.
At the same time, many anglers believe a more obvious solution deserves serious consideration: mechanical harvesting.
Harvesters physically remove vegetation, taking nutrients with it instead of leaving them behind to rot. FWC already uses them in some areas, but not at the scale many fishermen believe is necessary.
Would harvesting require more planning and effort? Absolutely. Would it need to be repeated? Probably. But it also avoids chemical inputs and reduces long-term muck buildup.
If given the choice between clearer water through harvesting or murky lakes after spraying, most bass anglers know which option they’d pick.
Photo Credit: Florida Sportsman - In an effort to reduce chemical spray treatment on lakes to reduce invasive floating plants, the FWC has come up with a new method for invasive plant management, and it sounds promising.
Some might even argue that certain invasive plants, when kept in check, provide valuable fish habitat and water filtration. That’s a deeper debate. What isn’t up for debate is the frustration anglers feel when productive water turns lifeless.
Florida bass fishing isn’t gone — but it is under pressure. And right now, too many anglers are watching the places they love slowly lose what made them special in the first place.
If Florida wants to stay the Bass Fishing Capital of the World, protecting the water has to matter just as much as catching what swims in it.
Calm River & Ocean Made for Great Week
Pompano bite has been pretty good along the flats and spoil islands with some bait on them.
Great week of warmer weather, calm river and ocean brought a great week of fishing inshore and nearshore. We’ve been getting a lot of good trout on the flats and around the deeper mangrove shorelines and plenty of pompano, jacks, bluefish and ladyfish on the flats and shorelines as well.
All of our fishing has been with artificial baits as the reaction bite has been the key. Soft plastics on 1/4 oz jig heads have been my go to with the Rapala Mooch Minnow and DOA paddle tails as the two main baits we’ve had the most success on as well as the Lil Jon. Nearshore has been good as well with plenty of bluefish, mackerel and a lot of sharks. Artificial baits have been productive with heavier jig heads and fast action for all of the species.
There has been some blacktip, spinner and sharpnose sharks mixed in around the bait pods. Blacktips and spinners have been chasing poppers. The sharpnose sharks we’ve been catching on light tackle with same soft plastics we use for mackerel and bluefish, it’s been a lot of fun! Looks like a few more cold fronts later this week and weekend may slow the bite a little but there’s always some action to be had if you find bait in the lagoon or along the beaches.
What A Week Offshore!
What a week of fishing! We were able to do a bit of everything. Go deep for the tilefish, we caught them between 500 and 600 feet. Definitely had to bow the kings this week, they were on fire on 8A reef. On Pelican, the bottom bite was really good, we landed a number of different species with lane snapper, sea bass and triggerfish being our most consistent catches. If you want to get offshore and catch some of these fish, give us a call.
Feeling Young Again
This past week was all about an old friend and a fly rod. I first met John from a referral from another guide for someone to take him on a fly-fishing charter. This was over 18 years ago and ever since that first outing we have spent time on the boat together with our fly gear. He is now 81 years old. He lives to throw the long rod. A true snowbird from Pennsylvania, retired veterinarian and an all-around great person to be around.
Our first day out we fished around the Grant/Micco area and managed several trout and one snook. He called me that early evening and told me he had a surprise for me. John booked a fishing charter on the Mosquito Lagoon for us. We made the drive the next morning and met our Captain, Austin Ross. A True Professional at such a young age. So, we headed out with one youth and two old Geezers to find some Redfish. The anticipation, to say the least, made me feel young again and I’m sure John felt it also but knew what we were about to experience being with Austin days before.
Our Captain poled us silently and meticulously into an area that has been holding a school of fish. John gave me the platform first, this is how gracious of a guy he is. I was hesitant of being first up but also if I was really capable since it was my first time fishing this way and to see if my skills were good enough to do so. When he pushed into an area, he said to get ready all of a sudden there were tails of at least 50 fish waving at us with probably 100 or more fish with the trailers. We spent the next 6 hours of John and I taking turns on the front deck hooking up on these very healthy fish.
Two Happy Geezers hooking up with High Fives after the catch. The waters were so clean, and the grass was everywhere, sadly just like we used to have in the lower Lagoon years ago. At the end of the day, we drove back home with smiles on our face and feeling somewhat younger.
Great Weather, Dismal Fishing
Good morning all my Sebastian Inlet fans, I trust everyone enjoyed the awesome weekend we had, the weather was perfect to be outdoors! But, someone forgot to tell the fish! Lol. It was for lack of a better word, DISMAL! Lots of folks out fishing, but that was all they were doing, fishing, no catching.
Just another quick reminder for everyone fishing the north jetty, THE AREA BETWEEN THE RAILING AND PAINTED YELLOW LINES IS FOR PEDESTRIAN WALKWAY, AND FOR EMT MEDICAL EMERGENCIES, NO EQUIPMENT OF ANY KIND IS ALLOWED, IT SHOULD ALL BE PUT IN THE CENTER OF THE JETTY GRATINGS. You can stand there and fish, but everything equipment wise is not permitted there. Thanks for your attention to this safety matter. Now off to the fishing, like I said, it has been very slow.
North Jetty
Out here about the only action I saw the last few days were the spanish mackerel bite, lots and lots of them being caught on live pilchards, small white jigs, silver spoons, and gotcha lures. Most of the fish were in the 14-18 inch range, and they were FATTIES!!! Healthy fish. Also quite a few small and medium size blues were being caught as well, same baits, and both sides of the jetty on the incoming tide. As for anything else, a couple of big black drum and redfish very early in the morning at daylight, at the tip, outgoing tide. Along the wall between the baitshop and bridge on the incoming, there were a few nice catch and release redfish caught on live baits. No sheepshead, no flounder.
South Jetty
Over here the action was pretty slow as well, with only some blues and spanish being caught on the incoming tide. The water over here has muddied up quite a bit from the SSE winds we had, and that made the catfish and stingrays show up again. And with that being said, it shut down the flounder bite in the surf area that was going on lst week.
T-Dock Area
Back here there hasn’t been a whole lot of folks fishing, the ones that are fishing report some small sheepshead and black drum around the dock pilings, and the shorelind between the dock and the cleaning table, live shrimp was the ticket for them. A few spanish and blues in the channel area for those tossing silver spoons and small jigs. The flounder bite we had has fallen of the wagon, again. Not very many “flounder boys” were out, plus finger mullet have been hard to come by.
Surf Area, both sides
South side, forget about it! The waves have kicked up a tad, and the SSE winds we had the last few days has turned the water into a muddy and weedy mess. Nothing but catfish and stingrays. North side, the northern most parking lot area they are still getting some pompano, whiting and small black drum, on live and dead shrimp, and live sand fleas, only because the water is a lot cleaner over here.
Well folks, that’s all we have for this week. We’re supposed to have another cold front come through by Thursday, but it shouldn’t affect the surf, water quality as the winds will be NNW, but it will cool down again. I keep telling my self, it’s WINTER, things are a bit off. I wish you all a great week!
Crystal Clear Water in Mosquito Lagoon
We’ve got some of the best fishing I’ve seen in years. In the Mosquito Lagoon we’ve got crystal clear water with schools of redfish and black drum on the flats and trout along the deep drop offs. It’s a great time to get out and enjoy some of the best sight fishing in the country. You can catch fish using fly, artificial, or live bait so it’s a great time for anglers of all skill levels. I have dates available, you can call me at 386-295-5991 or you can go right to my website and book. www.fatfishguide.com
Nearshore Action Remains Strong
Near-shore action remains strong out of Sebastian and Port Canaveral this week. We’ve been catching really good numbers of tripletail that are averaging 8 to 15 pounds. These are my favorite size to eat. The larger fish (and we’ve had some into the low 20-pound range) just don’t taste as good even though they are very impressive to show in photos. These fish should remain around for another few months so if you like to eat fish, now is your time to get out there or give me a call and we’ll go target them together.
The surprise of this winter for me has been the numbers of nice sized speckled trout along the beaches. I have my anglers landing them with jigs or live shrimp on an Assassin Boodah style jig head. Some of the trout are running into the low 20-inch range, but most of them are averaging 15 to 17-inches. I’ve been using a lot of the Rapala Crush City Salty Ned Rolls or the Ned BLT lures because of all of the bluefish that are also working the surf break right now. These are made with the elas-tec material which is highly resilient and super stretchy to combat the teeth on those blues.
Pompano are another species that have been showing up fairly regularly along the surf. Goofy style jigs in pink, orange, or chartreuse have been working best for them. On most days we catch at least two or three and on a good trip we’ll get about a dozen. The weather is going to start to deteriorate over the next week so I’ll probably be inside the lagoon rather than out here, so I’ll have a good report on how they are fishing for you in next week’s edition of Spacefish.
I do have a few days each week to get anglers out on the water, so if you’re interested please hit me up and we’ll put something together that works for you.
Great Sight Fishing Opportunities
The winter time fishing in New Smyrna Beach backwaters has been good and with the circulating cool fronts this week it will be even better. With the shifting winds and cool temperatures coming into Central Florida look for the water levels to start to lower and fish to gather making for some great sight fishing opportunities.
The redfish and black drum have been and will continue to be holding in and around the shallow sand holes throughout the Mosquito Lagoon. Look for the snook and trout to start moving into the deeper holes and shorelines as the water temps start to drop over the upcoming week. This is definitely one of my favorite times of year to fish the backwaters of New Smyrna Beach and the shallow waters of Mosquito Lagoon as the fish tend to be very happy as the water temps cool down. Do not neglect the deeper waters of the intracoastal throughput the Daytona Beach area, either. The snook, trout, redfish and other species like to hold of the deeper mud throughout the Intracoastal.
Weather looks to be good into next week so get out and bend a rod.
🎣 Headwaters Lake Fishing Update – 1/7/26 🎣
Launched this morning to 64° water temps, and the bite is rolling. Live bait is still getting crushed, and those big Headwaters bass are pushing shallow… you know what that means 😎🔥
🏆 Top Producers Right Now
Z-Man EVO Chatterbaits
Colors: Bluegill, Green Pumpkin, Golden Shiner
• Target shallow flats with scattered hydrilla (5’ or less)
• Stick with 1/2 oz to stay dialed into the grass
• Forktail/Zako-style trailers are key
• 50 lb Ande Black braid
• Dobyns Champion 736CB Glass
Bass Assassin RSB Worms
Colors: Gooseberry, Junebug
• 1/8 oz tungsten (adjust for wind)
• Retrieved similar to a spinnerbait
• 5/0 VMC Redline EWG
• 50 lb Ande Black braid
• Dobyns DX784
Mike Bucca 6” Trick Shad
Colors: Gizzard, Bone
• Work grass lines near sharp drops and canal cuts
• Slow swim just under the surface
• Proven giant producer 💪🐊
📬 Bullshad bait drops:
Get on the email list at Bullshad.com
🔗 Ande Black (Graphite) Braid:
📞 Book your Headwaters trip:
772-494-7400 | 304-610-6066
📧 captainbhass@gmail.com
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CAUGHT ON CAMERA
Check out what’s been caught on camera while fishing in around the Space Coast this week.
THANKS FOR READING!
Thanks for reading another weekly fishing report from Spacefish. Don’t forget to listen to Spacefish ON THE RADIO every Friday at 4pm as we talk fishing with Mark Moses on SPORTS RADIO 1560 THE FAN.
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